跟进:巴西总统决选民调收窄:弗拉维奥·博索纳罗45%对44%领先卢拉,电视辩论后首份Quaest民调差距在误差范围内

圣保罗——据路透社报道,民调机构Quaest10月21日公布的民调显示,在10月25日总统决选投票前,参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗(Flavio Bolsonaro)对现任总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦(Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva)的领先优势收窄:弗拉维奥将获得45%的选票,卢拉为44%。
弗拉维奥是右翼前总统雅伊尔·博索纳罗(Jair Bolsonaro)的长子。这是两名候选人上周日(10月18日)举行电视辩论后发布的第一份Quaest民调;一周前,弗拉维奥以46%对卢拉的44%领先。Quaest于10月17日至20日调查了2,154人,误差幅度为2个百分点——两人差距在误差范围之内。
本站此前报道:弗拉维奥在10月4日首轮投票中意外胜出,与卢拉一同进入10月25日决选;两人10月18日举行首场电视辩论,互相指责腐败。
关联:人物特稿:卢拉胜选,从擦鞋童到四度当选总统——卢拉生平与从政经历
Bolsonaro's Lead over Lula Narrows Ahead of Brazil Runoff: Flavio at 45%, Lula at 44% in First Quaest Poll After TV Debate
SAO PAULO — Brazilian Senator Flavio Bolsonaro's lead over President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has narrowed ahead of the October 25 runoff, a Quaest poll showed on Wednesday, October 21, Reuters reported. The eldest son of former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro would receive 45% of the vote, compared with 44% for the leftist incumbent, according to the poll.
It was the first Quaest poll released after a television debate between the two candidates on Sunday, October 18. A week earlier, Bolsonaro had 46% of the vote compared with Lula's 44%. Quaest surveyed 2,154 people between October 17 and 20; the margin of error is 2 percentage points, putting the one-point gap within the margin of error.
GSM previously reported that Flavio Bolsonaro won the first round on October 4 and advanced to the October 25 runoff against Lula, and that the two traded corruption accusations in their first television debate on October 18.
发布:GSM·美国(发布链接)
图片来源:图:参议员弗拉维奥·博索纳罗(左)与律师Frederick Wassef在巴西参议院出席记者会(资料图)。照片:Agência Senado,CC BY 2.0,经Wikimedia Commons。Senator Flavio Bolsonaro (left) with lawyer Frederick Wassef at the Brazilian Senate (file photo). Photo: Agência Senado, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons.
GSM Global · 本篇英文版 English edition of this story
- 2026-10-06 08:45巴西大选首轮爆冷:博索纳罗之子弗拉维奥意外胜出,10月25日决战卢拉
- 2026-10-13 09:39决选首份Datafolha民调:弗拉维奥有效票52%对48%领先卢拉
- 2026-10-17 00:57巴西总统决选10月25日举行 弗拉维奥·博索纳罗承诺2000亿雷亚尔财政调整、称不动社会支出
- 2026-10-18 18:18巴西总统决选首场电视辩论今晚圣保罗登场 卢拉与 Flavio Bolsonaro 正面对决
- 2026-10-18 19:49跟进:巴西决选首场电视辩论交锋激烈 卢拉与Flavio Bolsonaro互指涉案 安全与经济成焦点
- 2026-10-19 00:44巴西总统决选首场电视辩论:卢拉与弗拉维奥·博索纳罗互指腐败 10月25日投票
- 2026-10-21 07:40跟进:巴西总统决选民调收窄:弗拉维奥·博索纳罗45%对44%领先卢拉,电视辩论后首份Quaest民调差距在误差范围内本篇
- 2026-10-25 09:40跟进:巴西决选今日投票:卢拉与弗拉维奥·博索纳罗势均力敌,谁胜出都将改写地区格局
- 2026-10-25 14:40跟进:巴西总统决选投票延长2小时:最高法院法官下令全国延至19时,计票公布暂停
- 2026-10-25 16:19跟进:巴西决选计票恢复公布:已计逾5%选票,卢拉以51.16%对48.84%领先Flávio Bolsonaro
- 2026-10-25 16:52跟进:巴西决选计票近半:Lula以50.01%微弱领先Flávio Bolsonaro,领先优势两度易手
- 2026-10-25 17:05跟进:巴西决选计票逾七成半:Lula以51.09%扩大领先Flávio Bolsonaro,选举法院尚未宣布胜负
- 2026-10-25 17:20跟进:巴西总统决选:民调机构Datafolha宣布Lula胜选,选举法院已计99.79%区段、Lula以51.76%领先Flávio Bolsonaro
- 2026-10-25 17:50跟进:巴西选举法院宣布Lula赢得总统决选:已计99.86%区段得票51.76%,领先Flávio Bolsonaro逾436万票
- 2026-10-25 17:55卢拉胜选:从擦鞋童到四度当选总统,巴西总统卢拉生平与从政经历
- 2026-10-25 18:50跟进:Lula赢得巴西总统决选后多国领导人致贺:墨西哥总统Claudia Sheinbaum称「巴西人民赢了」
- 2026-10-25 19:20跟进:Flávio Bolsonaro拒绝承认巴西总统决选败选:称将寻求废除选举结果,指延长投票两小时裁决「不可接受」
- 2026-10-26 23:29跟进:巴西决选最终计票完成:卢拉以51.79%得票率赢得第四任期
- 2026-10-26 11:12跟进:弗拉维奥·博索纳罗拒绝承认巴西大选败选:称将要求废止决选结果,巴西股指基金在亚洲交易暴跌近15%
- 2026-10-28 02:10【视频】跟进:特朗普称赞成巴西参议员Flávio Bolsonaro来美:国务院官员称将向其与家人发入境签证
- 2026-10-28 06:42跟进:弗拉维奥·博索纳罗抵达Miami 兄弟Eduardo迎接 其护照已被巴西方面注销

